Democracy Delayed: The Operational and Partisan Impacts of California’s Election Administration System

The Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College has released a report analyzing how California’s transition to vote-by-mail elections has contributed to the state’s slow vote counts. The report, titled Democracy Delayed: The Operational and Partisan Impacts of California’s Election Administration System, shows how this transition has affected both ballot-processing times and partisan outcomes. This report explores the effects of the transition at the county level through analysis of the California Secretary of State’s Unprocessed Ballot Reports. The results indicate that, following initial delays, counties generally have become more efficient the longer they use the new system, suggesting that institutional learning plays a key role in improving ballot-processing speed. Notably, these findings indicate that slower processing is not inherent to vote-by-mail elections, and that California’s overall efficiency may improve in future cycles as counties continue refining their procedures. Beyond administrative challenges, the report identifies small but meaningful partisan effects, especially in close contests. Across four recent election cycles, eight US House races experienced a change in the leading candidate as ballots continued to be counted. In most of these cases, an initial Republican lead flipped to a Democratic victory. This can be attributed to a measurable advantage among late-tabulated votes. Democratic candidates in these key races maintained a consistent advantage in ballots tabulated 14 or even 21 days after the election was held.

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